Analysis of the recent elections

• Everyone has been expecting a strong result for UKIP in the European elections for months, so it's no surprise to see them top the poll. Across Europe right wing nationalist parties are having good results including France's Front National and the Danish People's Party.  
• The Tories have won every European election in the last 20 years. Coming third in a national election for the first time in living memory is a disaster for David Cameron.
• We're glad to see Labour's vote up significantly on 2009 (from 16% in 2009 to over 25% now) and we're on course to see a large increase in our MEPs (13 in 2009 to 20 now). We've gained seats in the North East, North West, West Midlands, South West, Yorkshire and Humber, and London.
• Unlike the Conservatives, Labour is set to have representation in the European Parliament in every region, after gaining a seat in the South West. The Conservatives have no seats in the North East for the first time since 1999.
• Tony Blair never won a European election despite winning three general elections. Even in 1999 when Labour had double figure leads in the polls we didn't win this contest. These are traditionally tough elections for centre and centre-left parties across Europe, as we have seen again this week.
• More importantly for the General Election this is on the back of local election results that saw Labour make 338 gains and significant progress in the target seats that we need to win in 2015, including Cambridge, Carlisle, Crawley, Enfield North, Lincoln, Harlow, Hastings and Peterborough. Lord Ashcroft's poll reinforced that on Saturday.
• This is another disastrous result for the Lib Dems, losing almost all of their MEPs, which together with the local election wipe-out in the likes of Manchester and Lambeth shows that a year from the general election their comeback strategy has failed.